Prepolls, Mudslinging and Houses on Fire - How the Australian Election turned into a Labor Landslide.

Well folks, at 8:30pm on Saturday the 3rd of May ABC’s election analyst Antony Green called the election. There was no conceivable way that the LNP Coalition could form Government. Despite opinion polling switching up to favour Labor about halfway through the campaign period it is safe to say that no-one expected a labor landslide of this magnitude.

Whilst some were expecting it to be a tight race Albanese (left) was able to claim an easy win over Dutton (right) [Image Credit: BBC]

Results (As of Right Now)

The seat count as of 11am the 5th of May has Labor sitting at a comfortable majority, although it should be noted that the counting is not complete, and some possible seats for The Greens are yet to be called. [Image Credit: ABC NEWS]

To put this into perspective, in the 2022 Australian Federal election the Labor party just managed to gain majority in the form of 77 seats, ending an almost decade long tenure of LNP Governments, with various Prime Ministers throughout that ten year period. So to compare that result to the one on display Saturday night, it is clear that the LNP did not learn anything from their mistakes in 2022, arguably they even went backwards, with Peter Dutton becoming the first Opposition leader in Australian history to lose his seat on top of his party losing the overall nationwide vote, but more on that later.

Dutton made political history last night - probably not in the way that he was hoping for, as he lost his seat of Dickson, a seat he’s held onto for over 20 years to Labor Candidate Ali France. Becoming the first Opposition Leader in Australian history to lose his seat on election night. [Image Credit: AAP/Mick Tsikas]

How did Labor manage to claim so many seats?

The wake of this election has many wondering, how did Labor manage to gain so many seats? In my circles at least their campaign was deemed boring and uninteresting, but the results show that there was clearly something in their messaging that resonated with voters. When asking how Labor managed to gain such a large majority the question on everyone’s mind is “how did Labor do it.” Just over six months ago this was looking to be a landslide victory for the Coalition, with no hope for Albanese and his team. Yet the results last night indicate something very different. And I think it comes down to a few key issues: Trump, Negative Campaigning vs The Idea of Hope, Backpeddling and ‘Mudslinging’

Donald Trumps re-election turned out to be the curveball that turned people away from voting more Conservative. [Image Credit: SBS]

Factor Number One: Trump’s Impact

When Donald Trump was elected in 2024 it sent shockwaves around the world, leading many pollsters and analysts to believe that there was a major shift to people voting more conservative.

Before Trump’s election there were already these trends, with countries such as France showing that the opinion polls wanted a more conservative Government. However, it would be revealed that this sort of ideology was not wanted or sought after with voters bucking the trend and instead voting for the more progressive option.

This trend would continue in the Canadian election, however this time many argue it is because of the influence of Trump with polls showing a massive dip in faith in the conservative party, so much so that the conservative opposition leader of Canada Pierre Poilievre would not only lose the election, but would also lose his seat (hmm that sounds familiar).

Around the time Donald Trump was elected and inagurated as the 47th President countries overseas were seeing the opposite of what they thought would happen. People were swinging away from the conservative vote. [Image Credit: Undermedia]

So where exactly does that leave Australia? We are obviously geographically very far away from the United States, so surely Trump would not play a major role in our political decisions?

Whilst Trump is not the person physically holding the pencil and filling out the ballot paper there is no denying that his influence has been on the minds of many Australians. With opinion polling indicating a similar story to that of Canada, following Trump’s election Australia’s made the decision to turn away from the conservative vote.

Up until January 2025 opinion polling was looking extremley positive for the Coalition, these numbers practically guaranteeing a victory for Dutton. [Image Credit: Canley]

So is it merely a coincidence that both these graphs switched up at similar times in both countries’ campaign periods? I would argue not; after last night, one thing is clear, Australians do not want to end up like America; in fact, they fiercely reject the notion.

It certainly did not help Dutton’s case to be compared to Trump, receiving the name ‘Temu Trump’ from former Member for Brisbane Stephen Bates. As well as certain members of Dutton’s party being photographed in MAGA apparel and using similar talking points. Even if Dutton wanted to distance himself from Trump it was too late, the connotation was already there. And he certainly did not help his cause by calling the ABC and The Guardian “hate media” when addressing the party faithful at a rally in Melbourne.

Jacinta Nampijinpa Price is a Senator from the Northern Territory, she is part of the Australian Country Party (part of the Coalition) and is the Shadow Minister for Indigenous Australians and has found herself in hot water one time or another for promoting ‘Trumpian’ style politics. [Image Credit: The Guardian]

“These results show Australians vehemently reject the notion of wanting to be similar to America, and despite Dutton’s efforts, he could not shake the connotation of being more than a ‘Temu Trump’.”

Whilst it is impossible to definitively say that Trump was the key reason behind Dutton’s loss, it is clear that Australia has followed the trends of many other countries of not wanting to go down the conservative path, now whether Dutton’s lose was simply a by-product of Australian’s following that trend, or they just could not fathom the idea of Dutton being Prime Minister, only time will tell.

Factor Number Two: Negative Campaigning vs The Idea of Hope

Now this factor was inspired by comments made by the ABC’s 7:30 political editor Laura Tingle during Saturday nights election coverage, and that is the idea of negative campaigning, in which parties are pushing ideas that discredit their opponent or utilise fear tactics rather than pushing forward their own policies.

Now, one thing was clear throughout the campaign, Both the LNP and Greens were running the same negative campaign, just in a different way, both ended up becoming an advantage for Labor. Whilst the LNP and Greens were saying everything that was wrong, Labor was able to swoop in and promote an idea of hope, something that ultimately stuck with the Australian people.

In the end it was not culture wars or discrediting that won the election, but rather a hope for the future that Australia can be better. [Image Credit:SBS]

The Coalition - The ‘viable?’ alternative

Let’s start with the Coalition, now, when you are in opposition, you find yourself in a unique position. Your entire role is to scrutinise and oppose everything that the Government says or does. But you also need to present yourself as ‘government in waiting,’ meaning you need to act as a viable alternative.

That means when you are on the campaign trail, you need to put forward viable policies, you can’t just win votes on being an attack dog. alone. With the Coalition there seemed to be very little being put forward as a viable alternative, their entire messaging was simply ‘you can’t trust Albanese.’

The Australian voters saw through those scare campaign tactics and ultimately voted against it, wanting unity rather than division.

The Greens - Protest vs Progress

Now moving onto The Greens, who for the most part did do a better campaign than the Coalition when it came to putting forward policies (in the fact that they had some policies to stand on rather than just being an attack dog). But, as a party the messaging was still very doom and gloom. However, I will say it was better this time than in previous elections.

The Greens did do well overall in the national vote. The fact that there have been major swings against them in safe seats such as Melbourne, and even losing seats such as Brisbane and Griffith suggests that something deeper is at play - outside of preferences falling because of the Coalition’s poor performance.

In order to prevent anymore stronghold seats being lost The Greens need to have a strong look internally and learn to navigate the balance of being an attack dog and being magnanimous to get policy through, otherwise these swings may continue.

Ultimately, the reason for The Greens poor performance in safe Greens seats starts even before the election is called. It is a combination of not understanding how to balance being combative vs collaborative and relying too heavily on preference flows during an election which collapsed when the Coalition performed poorly in Greens-leaning areas.

And as a result…

So why did the results turn out the way that it did? Well, partially it is because of the first preferences shifting from the Coalition and going to Labor (which in turn had a flow on effect of impacting minor parties), but I believe it is deeper than that, it was a form of protest against the culture wars and negative politics that dominated this election. It was a clear repudiation of these negative politics. Australians voted for hope and unity over fear and division.

“The result itself was a form of protest... a clear repudiation of the negative politics found throughout the campaign.”

Factor Number Three: Backpeddling

Remember when we spoke about needing to put forward policies to be seen as a viable alternative? So what happens when you put forward policies and then backtrack them?

Presenting the Coalitions strategy for the 2025, in which the majority of policies they presented to the Australian people were backtracked a few days later.

The most prominent examples were when Dutton announced two policies, the first was one that would cut over 40,000 Commonwealth jobs and the second was a policy that would force public servants to ‘return back to the office’ and get rid of work from home benefits, however after much backlash Shadow Finance Minister Jane Hume said the party had listened to the concerns and Dutton walked back both policies.

By then the damage was already done, how could voters trust a party that wants to govern when the party can’t even make up their mind that the policies they are putting forward to the Australian people are ones they believe in.

This instability played right into Labor’s hands, not only did they have the advantage of incumbency and their track record over the last three years to campaign on, but this constant backflipping by the Coalition instilled doubt into voters. While Labor capitalised on this uncertainty through political advertising, it is arguable that this instability had undermined Coalitions credibility and people had made up their mind before the Labor party made a single ad.

Factor Number Four: ‘Mudslinging’

If you ask the Coalition the reason behind their drastic failure on Saturday night you’d be hard pressed to find anyone that doesn’t give the same answer, “if there’s enough mud it sticks” or “Peter fell victim of a vicious mudslinging campaign.” Implying that the reason the Coalition lost so many seats was not due to their own policy misteps or strategic failures but rather it was because of a calculated smear campaign waged by Labor and amplified by the non-Murdoch mainstream media.

But this narrative of ‘mudslinging’ is no more than a convenient deflection, it allows the Coalition to deflect blame rather than look inwards to see how their instability, an unpopular leader, culminating with an attack dog style campaign, was not what would garner the trust of the Australian people. Whilst the Coalition may say the ‘mudslinging’ was based on unfounded truths when rather it was the opposite. The media did not make up unfounded lies about Dutton, rather they held up a mirror, a mirror of choices and decisions culminating before Albanese even announced the election date.

“The media didn’t create a portrayal of Dutton based of lies and falsities; they simply held up a mirror — one that reflected years of decisions and rhetoric that alienated voters long before the election was called.”

And So A Labor Landslide Occurred

Saturday May 3rd 2025 is one election that will be spoken about for years to come despite the memes and group chat jokes about James McGrath’s obsession with prepolls it is obvious that the Coalitions campaign was nothing short of disastrous; that, alongside the Greens losing key lower house seats allowed Labor to swing on in and take a majority that hasn’t been seen since the era of Hawke, possibly even earlier.

It is difficult to see how the Coalition can rebuild from here, they are currently sitting on 39 seats one of the lowest seat counts of an opposition in Australian history. The task ahead of them is monumental, not just one of strategy or messaging, but rather one of identity. Exactly who is the modern Coalition, what do they stand for and what alternative can they offer outside of attack dog politics?

The Greens find themselves in a strange middle ground, whilst their national vote and senate seats are up there is no denying the loss that was faced in Brisbane, Griffith and possibly Melbourne. In order to make further ground in the next election it is vital that The Greens work on their tone to appeal to voters in the middle ground, it is no longer feasible to simply be the protest party. If they want to have any semblance of taking back labor territory this reckoning is essential.

As for Labor, they capitilised on every mistep and portrayed themselves as the calm in the storm, whilst their campaign certainly was not perfect there was something that resonated with voters, and the voters turned up for that. Labor’s overwhelming majority places them in a unique position, one that has not been seen in decades, and now comes the important part for Albanese and his team, living up to the promises said during the election. This is more than just a six week campaign period, the next three years are critical. This is more than just delivering on campaign promises, it’s a chance to shape Australia’s political standing, both at home and on the world stage, for years to come.